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Climateprediction.net, or CPDN, is a distributed computing project to investigate and reduce uncertainties in climate modelling. It aims to do this by running hundreds of thousands of different models (a large ensemble) using the donated idle time of ordinary personal computers, thereby leading to a better understanding of how models are affected by small changes in the many parameters known to influence the global climate. Anyone with a reasonable computer can join and help this project by running their own model and the project encourages as many people as possible to do so.

It is run primarily by Oxford University in England and has harnessed the most computing power and generated more data than any other climate modelling project.

Aims


The aim of the Climateprediction.net project is to investigate the uncertainties in various parametrizations that have to be made in state-of-the-art climate models (see "Modelling The Climate"). The model is run thousands of times with slight perturbations to various physics parameters (a 'large ensemble') and the project examines how the model output changes. These parameters are not known exactly, and the variations are within what is subjectively considered to be a plausible range. This will allow the project to improve understanding of how sensitive the models are to small changes and also to things like changes in carbon dioxide and sulphur cycle. In the past, estimates of climate change have had to be made using one or, at best, a very small ensemble (tens rather than thousands) of model runs. By using participants' computers, the project will be able to improve understanding of, and confidence in, climate change predictions more than would ever be possible using the supercomputers currently available to scientists.

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