Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling - Latest articlesExtracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpoxHiroshi Nishiura, Stefan O Brockmann and Martin Eichner Wed, 20 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0000
Background:
Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data.
Main findings
First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3-5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions.
Conclusions:
Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing) taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically.
Utility of a single adjusting compartment: a novel methodology for whole body physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modellingHirotaka Ando, Shigeru Izawa, Wataru Hori and Ippei Nakagawa Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0000
Background:
There are various methods for predicting human pharmacokinetics. Among these, a whole body physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (WBPBPK) model is useful because it gives a mechanistic description. However, WBPBPK models cannot predict human pharmacokinetics with enough precision. This study was conducted to elucidate the primary reason for poor predictions by WBPBPK models, and to enable better predictions to be made without reliance on complex concepts.
Methods:
The primary reasons for poor predictions of human pharmacokinetics were investigated using a generic WBPBPK model that incorporated a single adjusting compartment (SAC), a virtual organ compartment with physiological parameters that can be adjusted arbitrarily. The blood flow rate, organ volume, and the steady state tissue-plasma partition coefficient of a SAC were calculated to fit simulated to observed pharmacokinetics in the rat. The adjusted SAC parameters were fixed and scaled up to the human using a newly developed equation. Using the scaled-up SAC parameters, human pharmacokinetics were simulated and each pharmacokinetic parameter was calculated. These simulated parameters were compared to the observed data. Simulations were performed to confirm the relationship between the precision of prediction and the number of tissue compartments, including a SAC.
Results:
Increasing the number of tissue compartments led to an improvement of the average-fold error (AFE) of total body clearances (CLtot) and half-lives (T1/2) calculated from the simulated human blood concentrations of 14 drugs. The presence of a SAC also improved the AFE values of a ten-organ model from 6.74 to 1.56 in CLtot, and from 4.74 to 1.48 in T1/2. Moreover, the within-2-fold errors were improved in all models; incorporating a SAC gave results from 0 to 79% in CLtot, and from 14 to 93% in T1/2 of the ten-organ model.
Conclusions:
By using a SAC in this study, we were able to show that poor prediction resulted mainly from such physiological factors as organ blood flow rate and organ volume, which were not satisfactorily accounted for in previous WBPBPK models. The SAC also improved precision in the prediction of human pharmacokinetics. This finding showed that the methodology of our study may be useful for functionally reinforcing a WBPBPK model.
Identification of restriction endonuclease with potential ability to cleave the HSV-2 genome: Inherent potential for biosynthetic versus live recombinant microbicidesMisaki Wayengera, Henry Kajumbula and Wilson Byarugaba Thu, 07 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0000
Background:
Herpes Simplex virus types 1 and 2 are enveloped viruses with a linear dsDNA genome of ~120–200 kb. Genital infection with HSV-2 has been denoted as a major risk factor for acquisition and transmission of HIV-1. Developing biomedical strategies for HSV-2 prevention is thus a central strategy in reducing global HIV-1 prevalence. This paper details the protocol for the isolation of restriction endunucleases (REases) with potent activity against the HSV-2 genome and models two biomedical interventions for preventing HSV-2.Methods and ResultsUsing the whole genome of HSV-2, 289 REases and the bioinformatics software Webcutter2; we searched for potential recognition sites by way of genome wide palindromics. REase application in HSV-2 biomedical therapy was modeled concomitantly. Of the 289 enzymes analyzed; 77(26.6%) had potential to cleave the HSV-2 genome in > 100 but 400 but < 700 sites; and the 9(3.1%) enzymes: BmyI, Bsp1286I, Bst2UI, BstNI, BstOI, EcoRII, HgaI, MvaI, and SduI cleaved in more than 700 sites. But for the 4: PacI, PmeI, SmiI, SwaI that had no sign of activity on HSV-2 genomic DNA, all 130(45%) other enzymes cleaved < 100 times. In silico palindromics has a PPV of 99.5% for in situ REase activity (2) Two models detailing how the REase EcoRII may be applied in developing interventions against HSV-2 are presented: a nanoparticle for microbicide development and a "recombinant lactobacillus" expressing cell wall anchored receptor (truncated nectin-1) for HSV-2 plus EcoRII.
Conclusion:
Viral genome slicing by way of these bacterially- derived R-M enzymatic peptides may have therapeutic potential in HSV-2 infection; a cofactor for HIV-1 acquisition and transmission.
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